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The liberalization of the new crown control policy is the general trend, and it is inevitable and should happen. Especially after the emergence of the Omicron variant in 2022, there is only one possibility left in the dynamic clearing technology, that is, to quickly find the signs of the epidemic through high-intensity nucleic acid general testing, and there are dozens or even a few cases in one place High-intensity control measures were adopted during community transmission. Regardless of whether it always works, this model cannot last long in the highly mobile, highly interactive modern society. Customized Non-standard contract manufacturers in california
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But a huge risk in the current situation is that many people (including some people involved in the decision-making) enter the let-go mode with a relaxed and unrealistic fantasy. In fact, the experience and lessons of the United States and Europe in the past three years have repeatedly shown that the open model will also face long-term, continuous and severe challenges:
A Under the background of widespread vaccination, the severe infection rate and fatality rate of the Omicron variant have dropped to a level similar to that of seasonal influenza (a more optimistic estimate is 0.3%, 0.1%). However, its transmission ability far exceeds that of seasonal influenza, and the base of infected people is therefore much greater than that of seasonal influenza. Therefore, the threat to the health of the population and the pressure on the health system are much greater than that of seasonal influenza. Data from the United States and Europe show that the number of hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths caused by the Omicron variant even exceeds that of the previous, more pathogenic Delta strain. The results of multiple model simulations at home and abroad also suggest that in the first wave of infections after the liberalization, hundreds of thousands of new crown deaths are inevitable. Omicron is definitely not a “little cold” as some experts call it, nor should its threat be understood simply by using the fatality rate as a number. Customized Non-standard contract manufacturers in california
B The Omicron threat is not just a direct infection threat either. Because of its strong transmission power, Omicron is bound to cause a serious run on medical resources during the peak of infection. This is not only reflected in the need for medical treatment by a large number of patients, but also in the absence of a large number of medical staff due to illness. What’s more dangerous is that the infection and sick work of medical staff will further drive the spread of Omicron in medical institutions and elderly care institutions, seriously threatening the health of these high-risk groups and exacerbating the run on medical resources. Data from various countries also show that the number of excess deaths in 2020-2022 is often significantly higher (even times) than the number of direct deaths from the new crown, and this is the reason.
C The problem of the sequelae of the new crown should not be ignored. Recently, domestic experts have tended to believe that there are no sequelae of the new crown, or that the sequelae are mainly caused by excessive psychological pressure. This is fundamentally contradictory to the research conclusions of countries around the world over the past three years. Taking multiple large-scale studies conducted by the U.S. Veterans Affairs Department as an example, new crown infection (including Omicron infection) can significantly increase the incidence of various diseases in various organs of the body, and significantly increase the all-cause mortality of patients. A rough estimate may be that after the widespread infection of the new crown, the overall medical burden of the whole society will increase by 10-30%, and it will continue for a long time. This means that the pressure on the medical system, the difficulty of seeking medical treatment for patients with various diseases, and the burden of medical insurance expenditure will continue to increase for a long time. Customized Non-standard contract manufacturers in california
D The problem of repeated infection of the new crown also needs to be very vigilant. Recently, the whole society has been permeated with an atmosphere of yang anyway, morning yang and good morning, and yang will be relieved, which is no different from the mentality of many young people in the United States and Europe in 2020 when they hold new crown parties. This in itself is of course a completely understandable social sentiment, but in fact, it has long been a consensus in the academic circle that the new crown can be repeatedly infected. After the emergence of Omicron, the reported reinfection rate has exceeded 5% (the actual number will only be higher In the future, new variants that can break through the immune protection of the existing population will only emerge one after another, and repeated infection of the population will be a high probability outcome. Especially for high-risk groups of the new crown (the elderly, patients with underlying diseases, pregnant women, etc.), repeated infection will greatly increase the possibility of severe disease.
E There cannot be false expectations that “the new crown will become weaker and weaker”. After the widespread spread and infection of the new crown virus, it is expected that the new crown virus will evolve towards stronger immune escape, but there is no theoretical and experimental evidence that can prove and predict that the new crown virus will evolve towards a weaker and weaker virulence. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the theory of evolution (trade-off evolution and short-sighted evolution both provide more reasonable and comprehensive explanations). In real history, by no means is every human pathogen evolving in an independent and weaker direction. The virulence of smallpox virus and poliovirus far exceeds that of the new coronavirus, but the two have not shown a clear decrease in virulence in the evolutionary history of thousands of years, and there is even an increase in virulence in local time and space. Customized Non-standard contract manufacturers in california
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The switch from the zero-clearing mode to the release mode is not just a difference between management or neglect, measurement or failure, reporting or not reporting, behind it requires the support of a whole set of preparatory work to achieve a smooth transition. In this regard, the Singapore government has provided us with a good example. They officially turned to the coexistence model in June 2021, and adopted a series of orderly opening actions to achieve a smooth transition, including mandatory vaccinations, requirements for wearing masks, restrictions on the number of people in public places, and antigens for infected people. Testing and home healing procedures and more. Although these measures cannot avoid the loss of life and public health burden caused by the new crown infection, they have helped them smoothly complete the soft landing of the epidemic control policy.
In contrast, the current domestic preparations are extremely lacking, which will significantly affect the cost and outcome of our liberalization model. We are no longer entangled with past decisions, but facing the future, there are some key preparations that must be started immediately:
A The first thing we need is to rebuild the whole society, including the decision-making and expert levels, to have a correct understanding of the new crown. We overemphasized the threat of the new crown during the zeroing period, and then turned to overemphasize the insignificance of the new crown after it was released, which will interfere with our adequate and accurate preparations for the new crown. The new crown is not a devil, but the threat of the new crown is definitely not comparable to a cold or a seasonal flu in a regular year. My suggestion is to establish a mechanism to summarize and release the latest domestic and foreign research results in a timely manner, so as to provide accurate reference information and clear expectations for the public, experts, and decision-makers. Customized Non-standard contract manufacturers in california
B. Accelerated vaccination: Data from various countries have repeatedly demonstrated that the decline in the severe disease rate and fatality rate of the Omicron variant has its own factors of reduced virulence, but to a greater extent it is caused by widespread vaccination (and previous infections). protection) results. Considering that there is basically no past infection in China, vaccination has become the biggest reliance on avoiding severe illness and death. However, the protective effect of inactivated vaccines vaccinated in China declines rapidly (from Hong Kong data), and it has been more than a year since most people in China have completed the vaccination procedure. It is necessary to revaccinate the whole population, not just high-risk groups. Booster shots are necessary, and priority should be given to promoting the sequential vaccination of heterogeneous vaccines that have been clinically proven. It is also recommended to open the import access of Pfizer/Moderna bivalent vaccines for use by people in need and enrich domestic vaccine choices.
C Accelerate the preparation of anti-severe drugs: the vast majority of patients with new crown infection do not need special drug treatment, and can recover within 5-7 days, and only need symptomatic treatment during the period (such as rehydration, fever reduction, cough relief, etc.). However, preventing high-risk groups from becoming seriously ill after infection is the key to depleting medical resources and increasing the number of severe cases and deaths. In this regard, we need to introduce a large number of drugs that have proven effective in clinical trials and applications as soon as possible, such as Pfizer’s Paxlovid and Merck’s Lagevrio, and open up online doctor/prescription channels for high-risk groups, so that they can quickly obtain them in the early stages of symptoms Drugs can effectively prevent the disease from getting worse. In the face of “life first”, we have no right to talk about protecting national industries and restricting the import of foreign medicines; as for those “miracle medicines” that have not been strictly clinically reviewed, we should not use them to mislead the public. In addition, with the frequent emergence of new coronavirus variants, almost all of the neutralizing antibody drugs that had been placed on high expectations in the past have failed, and the pre-development work in this area also needs continued support. Customized Non-standard contract manufacturers in california
D Restarting the monitoring of the new crown virus: After the liberalization, large-scale nucleic acid testing has been stopped in almost all regions, even within medical institutions. There are basically no formal statistics and summary channels for positive antigen tests. After liberalization, large-scale crowd testing is indeed unnecessary but will only increase the risk of infection, but we still need to monitor and track the new coronavirus on a larger scale. Even in the “lying flat” state of the United States, hundreds of thousands of new crown (nucleic acid and antigen) tests included in official statistics are still completed every day, and a few percent of confirmed cases will undergo virus genome sequencing analysis. This information will help us better understand the law of the spread of the new coronavirus, the law of mutation of the new coronavirus, and guide the medical system and the entire society (such as drug reserves, public transportation, express logistics, etc.) to prepare in advance. Considering China’s huge population base, we should pay special attention to the emergence of new mutant strains, especially those that can break through the existing immune barrier.
E Formulate an epidemic prevention and control plan after liberalization: liberalization should never mean a complete indifference to the new crown virus and the new crown epidemic, let alone assume that rapid spread will lead to rapid recovery. Especially during the peak hours of infection, it is still a very critical life-saving measure to take some measures to achieve “peak pressure” and prevent the rapid depletion of medical resources in a short period of time. Of course, these measures should not be as drastic as in the zero-clearing period, but such as reducing large-scale gathering activities (including suspension of classes), mandatory masks, distribution of antigen detection reagents and requiring infected persons to self-isolate at home, mandatory antigen detection in medical and elderly care institutions And other means, the infection peak after the release still has great practical significance. Of course, these policies are suitable for implementation and exit, and there must be a clear guiding principle to prevent abuse.
The new crown is obviously not a good thing. For the past three years we have tried to clear it, and when it was impossible to clear it, we tried to expect it to be quickly forgotten after a round of full infection. Unfortunately, this is not the correct posture to deal with the new crown. Customized Non-standard contract manufacturers in california